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Friday, April 24, 2026 | 9:00 AM PST

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Market Snapshot

📊 Live Quotes — Everything Green. SOX Hits 10,000. The Infrastructure Trade Is Printing.

S&P 500

7,158

▲ 0.70%

Nasdaq

24,793

▲ 1.45%

$GOOG

$341.57

▲ 1.13%

$SOXX

$461.67

▲ 4.69%

$TSM

$409.04

▲ 6.89%

$AMD

$350.98

▲ 14.95%

$ARM

$232.47

▲ 13.62%

$ASML

$1,465

▲ 3.35%

Market Tone: Everything green. Every single ticker. S&P printing 7,158 (fresh all-time high). Nasdaq +1.45%. And the semiconductor complex is on fire: SOXX +4.69%, TSM +6.89%, AMD +14.95%, ARM +13.62%, ASML +3.35%. Google up 1.13% on the $40 billion Anthropic investment. The physical AI infrastructure thesis we've been building all month is having its best day of the year. Yesterday we said "own atoms, not apps." Today the atoms are ripping 5-15% while the apps bleed. ARM at $232.47, up 87%+ YTD since we flagged the Gavin Baker edge AI thesis a month ago. This is what receipts look like.

Bada Bing 🎯

$40 Billion for One AI Company. The Infrastructure Arms Race Just Entered a New Phase.

Bloomberg reported this morning that Google is investing $10 billion in Anthropic, the maker of Claude, at a $350 billion valuation. That's the upfront. The back end: another $30 billion tied to performance milestones, bringing the total potential commitment to $40 billion. On top of that, Google Cloud will provide 5 gigawatts of computing capacity to Anthropic over the next five years, along with next-generation TPU chip access through the Alphabet-Broadcom partnership.

Let those numbers settle for a moment.

$40 billion. For a single AI company. That is larger than the GDP of most countries. It's larger than every defense tech contract we covered last week combined. It is the single largest AI investment ever announced by a public company. And it is not an acquisition. Google is not buying Anthropic. Google is renting a seat at the table of the company that built Claude, launched the SaaSpocalypse with Cowork, and is now running at a $30 billion annualized revenue rate.

$40B

Google's total potential investment in Anthropic. $10B upfront + $30B tied to milestones. $350 billion valuation. 5 gigawatts of Google Cloud computing capacity over five years. Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate: $30 billion. The largest single AI investment in history.

This deal tells the family three things that matter for the portfolio.

First: The AI infrastructure buildout is not slowing down. It's accelerating. Google is not the only hyperscaler writing enormous checks. Amazon has committed roughly $8 billion to Anthropic across prior rounds. Meta is spending $135 billion on AI capex in 2026. Microsoft is spending $75 billion. Combined hyperscaler AI infrastructure spend in 2026 will exceed $470 billion. The $40 billion Google-Anthropic deal is confirmation that the biggest companies on earth believe AI demand is still in the early innings. Every dollar of that spend flows through chips, power, cooling, and data center infrastructure.

Second: Custom AI silicon is winning. Anthropic announced this week that starting in 2027, it will use multiple gigawatts of computing power running on next-generation TPUs built through the Alphabet-Broadcom joint venture. This is not NVIDIA GPUs. This is custom silicon designed specifically for AI workloads. Broadcom expects its custom AI chip business alone to generate more than $100 billion annually by end of 2027. The custom silicon thesis runs directly through ARM's architecture.

Third: The moat framework the family published yesterday is being validated in real time. Google is not investing $40 billion in ServiceNow. Google is not investing $40 billion in Adobe. Google is investing $40 billion in the infrastructure and platform layer of AI. The application layer is getting disrupted. The infrastructure layer is getting funded. Yesterday's "own moats, not features" thesis is playing out in the biggest deal of the year.

Now let's talk about the victory lap.

A month ago, the family laid out the Gavin Baker edge AI thesis. Baker, the Managing Partner and CIO of Atreides Management, former Fidelity OTC Portfolio manager, six Lipper Awards, is one of the most respected institutional investors in tech. His thesis: the next phase of AI value creation shifts from cloud-centric training to edge deployment, and the companies that own the architecture powering edge AI will compound at rates the market hasn't priced in. His top holding: $ARM.

We told the family to watch ARM. Here's the receipt.

ARM started 2026 at $109.31. Today it's trading at $232.47, up 13.62% on the day alone. Up over 110% YTD. The company launched the Arm AGI CPU, its first company-designed data center processor for AI workloads. Meta is the lead customer. Revenue from the new chips is expected to hit $1 billion by 2028 and scale to $15 billion by 2031. Needham upgraded to Buy with a $200 target. Guggenheim raised to $240. Evercore, Citi, and Mizuho all reiterated bullish ratings. The stock has already blown past nearly every price target on the Street.

And the broader semi complex is confirming the thesis. Intel's blowout Q1 last night (revenue $13.58 billion, non-GAAP EPS $0.29 crushing the $0.01 consensus, Data Center AI revenue up 22% YoY) sent the entire sector ripping. $AMD up 14.95% to $350.98. $TSM up 6.89% to $409.04. $ASML up 3.35% to $1,465.23. $SOXX up 4.69% to $461.67. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit 10,000 for the first time in history today.

The physical layer of AI, the chips, the power, the cooling, the data centers, is the trade of 2026. Yesterday we told you to own atoms, not apps. Today every atom on the board is ripping double digits while the apps bleed. The infrastructure arms race just entered a new phase. The family was already positioned.

The family is watching. 🤌

📺 Watch today's breakdown on TikTok: tiktok.com/@noshowjobs

The Skim

Fact → So What → $Ticker

ARM +13.62%. AMD +14.95%. SOX Hits 10,000 for the First Time Ever.

The family flagged ARM a month ago through the Gavin Baker edge AI thesis. ARM started the year at $109. Today it's at $232.47. The Arm AGI CPU launch and Meta partnership are accelerating the thesis. Intel's blowout Q1 ($13.58B revenue, $0.29 EPS vs $0.01 consensus, Data Center AI +22% YoY) dragged the entire complex higher. AMD ripping nearly 15%. TSM up 6.89% back above $400. ASML +3.35%. SOXX at all-time highs. The physical AI infrastructure trade is having its best day of the year.

Intel Blowout Q1 Sends Stock Up 25%. The Turnaround Is Real.

Intel reported Q1 revenue of $13.58 billion, up 7.18% YoY. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.29 crushed the $0.01 consensus. Data Center and AI revenue jumped 22% YoY to $5.05 billion. Intel Foundry grew 16%. The stock gapped up 25% at the open, pushing YTD gains above 80%. Intel is now the top-performing CPU stock of 2026, narrowly ahead of ARM. The turnaround is being validated by real numbers, not narratives. The entire semi complex followed Intel higher today.

DOJ Expected to Drop Powell Probe. Warsh Confirmation Path Clears.

The DOJ is expected to drop its investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell's headquarters renovation, removing the procedural blockade that Senator Tillis placed on the Warsh confirmation vote. Powell's term expires May 15. If Tillis lifts his hold, the committee vote proceeds and Warsh could be confirmed before the deadline. The family's prediction from Tuesday: Warsh confirmed before June 30, 2026. That timeline just got shorter. The AI productivity rate thesis the family flagged is one step closer to becoming Fed policy.

Broadcom's Custom AI Chip Business on Track to Hit $100B Annually by 2027.

Context for the Google-Anthropic deal. Broadcom co-develops the TPUs that Anthropic will use at multi-gigawatt scale starting 2027. Last quarter, Broadcom's AI semiconductor division generated $8.4 billion in revenue, up 106% YoY. The company expects its custom AI chip business alone to exceed $100 billion in annual revenue by end of 2027. The Google-Anthropic commitment to 5 gigawatts of TPU capacity is a direct revenue pipeline. Alphabet's Google Cloud division is catching fire on TPU revenue. The picks-and-shovels thesis is alive and compounding.

Waste Management 🗑️

The Family Called ARM a Month Ago. Here's What Receipts Look Like.

Every newsletter will tell you what's happening today. The family newsletter tells you what's happening before it happens, then shows you the receipts when it does.

A month ago we laid out the Gavin Baker edge AI thesis. Baker, the former Fidelity OTC Portfolio manager who built Atreides Management into one of the most respected crossover funds in tech, had been pounding the table on the shift from cloud-centric AI training to edge deployment. His top holding: ARM. His thesis: the royalty model plus architectural dominance in edge computing creates a compounding machine the market was underpricing.

We told the family to watch. ARM was at $109 to start the year. Today it's at $232.47. Up 13.62% just today. That is a double-plus in four months. The family was there first.

But this isn't about one ticker. This is about a framework.

The physical AI infrastructure thesis, the same thesis that put TSMC in our snapshot when it reported 58% profit growth, the same thesis that put SOXX in our Skim when semiconductors were leading the rally, the same thesis we articulated yesterday when we said "own atoms, not apps," is the trade of 2026.

Google doesn't invest $40 billion in Anthropic's infrastructure because AI is slowing down. Intel doesn't report a blowout Q1 with Data Center AI revenue up 22% because the buildout is peaking. SOX doesn't hit 10,000 for the first time ever because the market thinks we're in the late innings.

We are in the early innings. The hyperscalers are spending $470 billion on AI infrastructure this year. Custom silicon is replacing commodity GPUs. Power infrastructure can't keep up with data center demand. Every one of those trends creates winners in the physical layer: chips, power, cooling, networking, data centers.

Meanwhile, yesterday's SaaSpocalypse thesis is being reinforced by today's tape. Google isn't writing $40 billion checks to workflow automation companies. Google is writing $40 billion checks to the company that built the AI agents eating those workflow companies alive.

Own moats, not features. Own atoms, not apps. The family framework is the edge.

The Family Ledger 📖

One Prediction. Timestamped. Immutable.

✅ Scorecard Update

ARM: Called one month ago via the Gavin Baker edge AI thesis. ARM was at ~$109 at the start of 2026. Now trading at $232.47. Up 110%+ YTD. Up 13.62% today alone. SOX hit 10,000 for the first time. The AGI CPU launched. Meta signed on as lead customer. RESULT: VALIDATED.

New Prediction

The Google-Anthropic $40B investment accelerates the custom silicon and physical AI infrastructure buildout through 2027. $AVGO trades above $250 within 90 days as the TPU revenue pipeline crystallizes. $ARM holds above $200 through Q2 earnings (reports May 6) as the AGI CPU and Meta partnership validate the direct silicon revenue thesis. $INTC sustains above $75 for 30 days as the Q1 turnaround is confirmed. The broader AI infrastructure layer ($SOXX, $GEV, $BE, $NVDA) outperforms the AI application layer ($NOW, $ADBE, $CRM) by at least 15 percentage points over the next 120 days.

⚠️ Not investment advice. Do your own research. The family has positions in names mentioned.

🤖 Powered by AI. Edited by The Consigliere.

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noshowjobs.net · @NoShowJobs