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Monday, April 13, 2026 | 9:00 AM PST

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Market Snapshot

📊 Live Quotes — Monday Open

Dow

47,670

▼ 0.51%

S&P 500

6,817

▲ 0.01%

Nasdaq

22,958

▲ 0.24%

$IBIT

$40.68

▼ 2.11%

$GLD

$432.80

▼ 0.99%

$XLE

$57.42

▲ 0.84%

$NVDA

$188.16

▼ 0.31%

$PLTR

$133.13

▲ 3.92%

Market Tone: Monday open is a masterclass in "market wants to go higher." Dow down half a percent on Boeing weakness, but S&P flat and Nasdaq green. The news cycle was brutal this weekend: Iran ceasefire fraying, inflation hot, Fed hawkish, AI regulatory pressure accelerating. And the market just... absorbed it. PLTR ripping +3.92% shrugging off Burry's bubble call. NVDA barely down 0.3% despite profit-taking. Energy green on Islamabad uncertainty. Gold pulling back as fear comes out. Bitcoin softer. Every tape signature says the same thing: sellers are exhausted.

Bada Bing 🎯

Markets Want to Go Higher. Here's How We Know.

There's a pattern that shows up before every major market bottom in history, and it's happening right now. The market stops going down on bad news.

Think about the last two weeks. Iran ceasefire violations. Oil back above $100. OpenAI and Anthropic building AI models that are supposedly going to replace the entire cybersecurity industry. Florida launching a formal investigation into OpenAI. Ray Dalio publishing a 13-step world war framework and placing us at Step 9. PLTR getting hammered on Michael Burry's "bubble" call. CRWD down 7%. PANW down 9%. NET down 12%. Hotter than expected inflation data. A Fed that just shifted from "rate cuts coming" to "rate pause for 18 months."

That is the worst possible news cycle you can have in a five week stretch. And yet.

The S&P 500 is sitting at 6,817. The Nasdaq is at 22,958. Both indices are green this morning. The VIX is sub-19. PLTR, the punching bag of the last week, is ripping +3.92% right out of the open. Energy is green. The worst news the market could get did not send the market lower. It sent it sideways to slightly higher.

There's a name for this. Traders call it "absorbing the bad news." Academics call it "exhausted selling." Whatever you call it, the signal is the same. The sellers are done. The people who were going to panic have panicked. The forced liquidations have been forced. What's left is a market that no longer has anyone willing to sell at these prices.

Here's what history says happens next.

In October 2022, the market got the hottest CPI print in four decades. Futures crashed premarket. The S&P opened at 3,577 and immediately puked to 3,491. By 4:00 PM that same day, the S&P closed at 3,670. A 5.1% intraday reversal on the worst possible news. That candle was the bottom of the entire 2022 bear market. The S&P rallied 42% over the following 14 months.

In April 2025, during the tariff panic, the market dropped for six straight weeks. Then the Trump administration paused most tariffs on April 9. The S&P surged 9.5% in a single session. That was the bottom. The index rallied another 30% over the next 12 months and set 41 new all-time highs in 2025.

In October 1987, after the Black Monday crash, the S&P lost 20.5% in a single day. It retested the low in December. December's retest held. From that bottom, the index gained 16.5% in 1988 alone.

+31%

Average 12-month S&P return following every 10%+ correction since World War Two (MUFG data). Oakmark's 50-year study puts the median 1-year return at 15% and the 3-year return at 48%. The Motley Fool's AAII bearish sentiment cut: 16% average 12-month return since 1987.

Now look at where we are. The S&P corrected 18.9% from February's peak to its April 8 low. Bearish sentiment is elevated. The VIX hit its highest level of the year on April 8. CNN's Fear and Greed index hit its 2026 low on the same day. And since then, on the worst possible news cycle the market could have gotten, the S&P has refused to break that low.

Translation: the family believes we already bottomed.

Here's the contrarian angle. Wall Street is still positioned defensively. Hedge funds are net short. Retail sentiment is bearish. Most investors are waiting for "more clarity" before they buy. They will not get it. Clarity is the single most expensive thing in markets. By the time CNBC tells you the coast is clear, the S&P is already up 15% from its low and you're buying at levels where the fast money is taking profits.

The setup right now is the textbook definition of a "coiled spring." Extreme bearish sentiment. Elevated put/call ratios. Oversold technicals. A market that has absorbed every possible negative catalyst. And the average return 12 months after this exact setup, across 80 years of data, is between 15% and 31%.

One piece of good news, any piece, sends this market rocketing higher. A clean Islamabad talks outcome. A dovish Fed comment. A single strong earnings beat. A ceasefire extension. Any of those cracks the spring.

The family is positioned for the crack. Are you? 🤌

📺 Watch today's breakdown on TikTok: tiktok.com/@noshowjobs

The Skim

Fact → So What → $Ticker

The 12-Month Return Math After a 10% Correction.

MUFG studied every US market correction since WWII. Average 12-month return following a correction of 10%+ was 31%. Oakmark's 50-year study: median 1-year return of 15% and 3-year return of 48% buying after any 10% decline. The Motley Fool cut using AAII bearish sentiment readings above 50%: average 16% 12-month return since 1987. Wall Street's median year-end S&P target is 7,600, implying 11% upside from current levels.

PLTR Ripping +3.92% at the Open. The Burry Bubble Call Is Dead.

Palantir at $133.13, up nearly 4% out of the Monday open. Michael Burry called it a "bubble" last week and PLTR got hammered 7%. Monday's action is a textbook rebound on absorbed bad news. If markets are bottoming, PLTR is exactly the kind of high-beta AI/defense name that leads the rally because it's the most oversold and the most shorted. Watch NVDA and the rest of the AI infrastructure complex for confirmation.

Islamabad Talks Continue. No Deal Yet, No Breakdown Yet.

The two-week Iran ceasefire expires April 21. Witkoff, Kushner, and VP Vance are still in Pakistan working the 10-point vs 15-point framework. XLE green this morning at $57.42 (+0.84%). Neither priced for war nor priced for peace. A clean extension announcement or a narrow framework deal is the single biggest positive catalyst the market can get right now.

Gold and Bitcoin Both Pulling Back Monday Morning.

GLD down 0.99% at $432.80. IBIT down 2.11% at $40.68. Both safe-haven and speculative hedges softening at the same time stocks hold firm is the exact risk-on rotation you want to see if we're bottoming. Money coming out of defensive positioning and back into equities. Watch this spread widen through the week if the thesis holds.

Waste Management 🗑️

Everyone Waiting for "More Clarity" Is Going to Miss the Move.

The phrase you are going to hear on financial television for the next two weeks is "wait for more clarity." Clarity on Iran. Clarity on the Fed. Clarity on earnings. Clarity on the AI regulatory environment. Clarity on inflation. Clarity on the next CPI print. Clarity on whether we retest the April 8 low.

Every single person telling you to wait for clarity is going to be wrong.

Here's why. Clarity is not a signal. Clarity is a price. By the time you can see the path forward with any confidence, the market has already moved 10 to 15 percent off the bottom and the easy money is gone. The April 2025 tariff rally is a perfect example. The S&P surged 9.5% in a single session on April 9, 2025. That single day was the bottom. Anyone who waited for "more clarity" on the trade negotiations watched the rally happen from the sidelines and then bought at 15% higher prices two weeks later.

The October 2022 bottom is the same story. Hottest CPI in four decades. Market opened down hard, puked to 3,491, closed at 3,670. One intraday session contained the entire bottom. The people who wanted clarity on inflation got a 42% rally in the 14 months that followed, but they did not participate in the first 10% of it because they were waiting for the "all clear" from the Fed.

The pattern is always the same. Bottoms happen on the worst news, in single sessions, when everyone is bearish, and they look obvious only in hindsight.

The bearish case right now is not wrong on paper. Inflation is hot. The Fed is hawkish. Iran is a mess. AI is disrupting sectors people thought were untouchable. Earnings guidance is getting cut. All of that is true. But the market already knows all of it. Every single data point in the bear case has been priced in over the last six weeks. That is literally what an 18.9% peak to trough correction means. It means the market has already finished processing the bad news.

What happens next is not about news. It's about positioning. Hedge funds are net short. Retail is scared. Cash on the sidelines is near record highs. Credit spreads have barely widened. None of those are the conditions of a market that's about to go down another 10%. They are the conditions of a market where any piece of good news triggers a violent repositioning higher.

The family is not waiting for clarity. The family is positioned for the first piece of good news. That news might come tomorrow from Islamabad. It might come next week from the Fed. It might come from a single earnings beat. It might come from a ceasefire extension. We don't know when. But we know what happens when it does: the same thing that always happens after a correction. Markets rocket higher. Cybersecurity names rip hardest. Semis lead. Gold holds. The bears cover.

If you are underinvested, this is the moment the family has been telling you to prepare for. Not because we have a crystal ball. Because we have 80 years of data that says markets want to go higher from right here, and all they need is a reason.

The Family Ledger 📖

One Prediction. Timestamped. Immutable.

New Prediction

The $SPY does not break below its April 8 low. The next 5% move in the S&P 500 is higher, not lower. Over the next 90 days, the index trades above 7,200 at least once, driven by a combination of Islamabad deal progress, earnings beats, and short covering. Semiconductor names lead the rally. Cybersecurity names ($CRWD, $PANW) outperform the broader index over the same window.

⚠️ Not investment advice. Do your own research. The family has positions in names mentioned.

🤖 Powered by AI. Edited by The Consigliere.

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