The US Is Running Out of Missiles. Oil Is at $109. And the Market Still Thinks This Ends Soon.
Something doesn't add up. Here's what the data is telling us that the headlines aren't.
📊 Market Snapshot — As of Market Close, Thu Mar 26
Asset | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
$SPY | $647.27 | 🔴 -1.45% |
$QQQ | $575.77 | 🔴 -2.05% |
$DIA | $460.30 | 🔴 -0.83% |
$BTC | $68,418 | 🔴 -4.06% |
$ETH | $2,045 | 🔴 -5.67% |
$GLD | $403.67 | 🔴 -3.03% |
VIX | 27.74 | 🔴 +9.51% |
10Y Yield | 4.41% | 🔴 +1.99% |
Brent Crude | ~$109 | 🟢 +6.5% |
🎯 [BADA BING] — The Market Is Sleepwalking
Three things happened today that the market is treating as separate stories. They're not.
One. Iran rejected the U.S. 15-point peace proposal and Trump responded by telling Tehran to "get serious before it's too late" — then walked back any commitment to a deal. Yesterday's peace rally lasted exactly 24 hours. $SPY is down 1.45%. $QQQ down 2.05%. Brent crude up 6.5% to $109.
Two. A RUSI report released today says the U.S. burned through 11,000+ munitions in the first 16 days of the conflict, at a cost of $26 billion. Their estimate: the U.S. is roughly one month away from running out of THAAD air defense interceptors and ATACMs ground attack missiles. One month.
Three. The OECD updated its inflation forecasts, saying the Iran war will keep U.S. headline inflation well above Fed projections. The ECB president today said the conflict could force Europe to raise rates. Meanwhile the Fed just held at 3.50–3.75% with seven FOMC members already penciling in zero cuts this year.
Here's the problem: the S&P is only down about 5% over the past month. The market is still pricing in a quick resolution. But if the U.S. genuinely runs low on key munitions in 30 days, Iran just rejected the plan, and Trump is escalating not de-escalating — where exactly does the quick resolution come from?
Gas in LA is $8.29 a gallon. The munitions report puts a hard deadline on how long the current tempo of operations can continue. The answer is "not very long." And nobody is talking about it. 🤌
📋 [THE SKIM]
$META down 8.03% today — double body blow. Social media liability verdict landed the same session as a layoff announcement. Two separate catalysts, one brutal day. When sentiment breaks on a mega-cap, it doesn't recover in a week. Not touching it.
$MU down 7.06% today — day six of a 22% decline from all-time highs. The TurboQuant overhang from Google's memory compression breakthrough isn't going away. The market is repricing the entire HBM demand stack. Every bounce is being sold.
VIX hit 27.74 (+9.51%) — fear is accelerating, not peaking. A VIX spike of this magnitude while yields are also rising (10Y at 4.41%, +1.99% today) means the market isn't just afraid of a slowdown — it's afraid of stagflation. That's a different and nastier regime.
$GLD down 3.03% on a war-escalation day. Gold is supposed to be the safe haven. When gold sells off alongside equities, it means one thing: forced liquidation. Someone big is raising cash. The real fear trade isn't in yet.
🗑️ [WASTE MANAGEMENT]
Airlines. Full stop. $DAL -1.30%, $UAL and $AAL taking similar damage, and that's on a day when the broader market is only down 1.5%. Every dollar Brent crude sits above $90 costs a major carrier roughly $100M in additional annual fuel expense. At $109 Brent, the math is broken. These names don't work until crude breaks back below $90 — and there's no catalyst for that as long as the Iran war is escalating. The peace rally already proved it won't last. Keep these in the trunk until the geopolitical picture actually changes.
📖 [THE FAMILY LEDGER]
Trades the family is watching:
$OXY (+3.75%) $XOM (+1.29%) $CVX (+1.76%) — Upstream energy is printing money at $109 Brent. The market keeps fading these names on ceasefire rumors that don't materialize. Every selloff on false peace hope is a buying opportunity until there's an actual, verified ceasefire. The pattern has repeated three times this month.
$LMT (+0.24%) $RTX (-1.46%) $GD (+0.96%) — If the U.S. is burning through munitions at the rate the RUSI report describes, restocking is a multi-year tailwind. Congress will not allow missile inventories to stay depleted. Defense appropriations bills are already being drafted. The $RTX dip today is noise against a multi-year tailwind.
$REMX $MP — Rare earth miners. Every precision-guided munition uses rare earth magnets. The samarium cobalt magnets in Tomahawk guidance systems alone represent real sustained demand. The U.S. Army is actively soliciting proposals for domestic rare earth refining right now. This is the trade nobody is talking about yet.
Open prediction (logged Mar 26): $BTC fails to recover $72,000 and tests $58,000–$62,000 by April 30, 2026. Confidence: 65%. Basis: failed breakdown from $74,500 peak, elevated futures leverage, rising rate-hike odds. Today's -4.06% move is consistent with the thesis.
No Show Jobs is published by Signal Edge Ventures LLC for informational purposes only. Nothing here is personalized investment advice. Not a registered investment adviser. Consult a qualified professional. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This newsletter uses AI-assisted research and writing tools.
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